An Unsuccessful Coup in Benin Signals West Africa's Democratic Precariousness



By Maazi Chikwado


On Sunday, December 7, 2025, an atmosphere of acute tension settled over Cotonou, the coastal hub of Benin, a nation widely regarded as a bastion of stability within West Africa's volatile Sahel region. Masked soldiers seized control of state media to announce the dissolution of the government and the removal of President Patrice Talon, proclaiming the establishment of a "Military Committee for Refoundation." The junta, under the leadership of Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri, declared an end to what it termed "corrupt civilian rule" and pledged a rapid restoration of order. For a brief period, it appeared that the "Coup Belt"—the contiguous zone of military takeovers from Mali to Niger—had expanded. However, by noon, Benin's interior minister confirmed the plot had been thwarted, the principal conspirators were in custody, and President Talon was secure. This swift resolution prevented Benin from descending into the turmoil afflicting its neighbours, yet it simultaneously underscored the democratic fragility in a sub-region where military regimes now govern more than 20 million people.


This averted crisis in Benin represents the latest manifestation of a wave of military interventions that has fundamentally altered West Africa's political landscape since 2020. Across the region, from Bamako to Niamey, nine successful coups and numerous other attempts have overthrown elected governments, suspended constitutional law, and created deep fissures within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). As the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—a military-led coalition of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—cements its opposition to regional democratic standards, academics caution that Benin's encounter with putschism could signify a wider contagion. This analysis, informed by recent scholarly research, examines the anatomy of these takeovers, their geopolitical consequences, and the critical need for stabilisation efforts. The future of West Africa's political configuration, as well as the continent's post-colonial development, hangs in the balance.


The Anatomy of Instability: From Mali to the Margins


Explaining West Africa's epidemic of coups is complex, though scholarly analysis reveals distinct patterns. A 2023 study by political scientists Gwinyai Taruvinga and Adeoye O. Akinola identifies a confluence of factors, including poor governance, economic hardship, and intensifying jihadist insurgencies. Following the Cold War, military coups had become infrequent, with sub-Saharan Africa experiencing only one major takeover between 2014 and 2019. However, the 2020 coup in Mali, which removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta amid public discontent over corruption and electoral integrity, precipitated a chain reaction.


Mali's junta, headed by Col. Assimi Goïta, justified its actions by citing the government's failure to contain Islamist militant groups such as Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). This rationale found traction throughout the Sahel. In Burkina Faso, two coups in 2022 were similarly rationalised as necessary responses to extremist violence. Niger experienced a similar event in July 2023 when Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani’s forces detained President Mohamed Bazoum, attributing the takeover to the civilian government's security shortcomings. By November 2025, Guinea-Bissau had also succumbed to military intervention, with Brig. Gen. Denis N’Canha's forces halted the electoral process and suspended state institutions.


These developments constitute what is now termed the "Coup Belt," a continuous territory under military administration stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. A significant 2024 OECD paper by Alexander Thurston documents the severe repercussions: while security was already deteriorating in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger before the coups, junta policies—such as arming civilian militias and ejecting French troops—have worsened insecurity, leading to a 69% rise in civilian fatalities in Mali alone since 2021. Extremist groups have capitalised on the ensuing instability to expand their influence and recruitment.


Benin's thwarted coup does not entirely conform to this model. In contrast to its Sahelian neighbours, Benin has a history of robust democratic processes, including peaceful transitions of power in 2016 and 2021. Nonetheless, President Talon's government has encountered growing public opposition related to constitutional changes that permit his bid for re-election and economic pressures from global inflation. The plotters' justifications mirrored regional complaints, levelling accusations of elite corruption and foreign interference. However, the decisive response from loyalist forces, reinforced by ECOWAS's condemnation, highlights an institutional resilience that is increasingly uncommon in the sub-region.


Geopolitical Fault Lines: The Diminishing Role of ECOWAS


The most significant consequence of these coups has been the restructuring of regional power dynamics. ECOWAS, established in 1975 to promote economic cooperation, had become a key institution for maintaining stability. Yet, its post-2020 strategy of sanctions and threats has proven insufficient. In Niger, the bloc's ultimatum in July 2023 nearly led to a military intervention but was ultimately constrained by internal disagreements and concerns about potential Russian exploitation of the conflict.


By January 2024, the military regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger had collectively withdrawn from ECOWAS to form the AES, a mutual defence alliance. This formal schism, solidified with an exit timeline established in December 2024, jeopardises the unity of ECOWAS. A 2025 analysis by Peter Joilah Lambon suggests that the AES capitalises on ECOWAS's policy inconsistencies, thereby undermining the bloc's moral and political authority.


Externally, the resulting power vacuums have attracted foreign intervention. The withdrawal of France's Operation Barkhane created a security gap that Russia's Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) has filled, exchanging military support for access to natural resources. The junta have actively fostered anti-French sentiment while strengthening ties with Moscow, Ankara, and Beijing. Thurston's research indicates that these geopolitical realignments embolden jihadist organisations, which strategically align with local grievances against perceived neo-colonial influences.


Benin's foiled plot, which drew unanimous condemnation from ECOWAS, could potentially serve to reinvigorate the regional body. Nevertheless, with the AES solidifying its position, the danger of fragmented economic blocs and uncontrolled insurgencies remains substantial.


Pathways to Resilience: Insights from Academic Research


Academic literature offers several pathways toward restoring stability in West Africa. A 2025 study by Deretha Elizabeth Bester identifies the current trend as "predatory rule," a system where military leaders consolidate power through indefinite transition periods or manipulated elections. Taruvinga advocates for "decolonising" security frameworks by prioritising local capacity over foreign intervention and tackling root causes like high youth unemployment.


Nnamdi Obasi of the International Crisis Group recommends that ECOWAS adopt a more calibrated approach, combining consistent sanctions with inclusive dialogue rather than relying solely on ultimatums. Similarly, a 2022 African Union policy paper proposes strengthening counter-terrorism efforts without undermining democratic principles, possibly through hybrid civilian-military governance structures. Benin's success in thwarting its coup through effective intelligence-sharing demonstrates the utility of such integrated networks. Ultimately, as Samba Sylla argued in a 2024 analysis, countering coups requires the cultivation of equitable global partnerships to overcome perceptions of neo-colonialism.


A Sub-Region at a Crossroads


Benin's narrow escape from a coup offers a temporary reprieve, not a lasting solution. While President Talon’s government has promised reforms, the memory of the attempted takeover persists. In a "Coup Belt" where juntas promise sovereignty but instead produce conflict, the scholarly consensus is clear: without a sincere commitment to governance reform, future coup attempts are almost certain.


West Africa is at a critical juncture. For the sub-region to move beyond the shadow of military rule, ECOWAS must resolve its internal divisions, global powers must address their exploitative legacies, and the continent's military leaders must abandon their authoritarian ambitions. Only through such concerted efforts can a future built on democratic principles be secured.